Your Command Center for Macro-Economic Analysis

This dashboard aggregates the most important economic and market indicators that professional investors, portfolio managers, and economists monitor to understand where the economy and markets are heading. The data comes from two primary sources: the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) maintained by the St. Louis Fed (the gold standard for economic statistics), and Yahoo Finance for real-time market prices.

How to use this page: The Key Economic Indicators above show recession-watch metrics — if the yield spread turns negative or unemployment starts rising, those are warning signs. The trailing charts below normalize different assets to percentage returns so you can compare performance on equal footing. Use the sidebar to explore specialized dashboards for deeper analysis into sectors, yield curve dynamics, liquidity, inflation, and more.

Understanding Sector Rotation

The S&P 500 is divided into 11 sectors, each representing a different segment of the economy. Sector rotation is one of the most powerful concepts in investing — the observation that different sectors lead the market at different points in the economic cycle. During expansions, cyclical sectors like Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials outperform. During contractions, defensive sectors like Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care hold up better because people still need electricity, groceries, and medical care.

How to read this: Each bar shows year-to-date return for that sector ETF. The key insight is the lack of persistence — the leading sector changes almost every year. Energy dominated 2021-2022 during the commodity surge but was the worst in 2020 and 2015. Technology led 2017-2020 but suffered in 2022’s rate-hike environment.

What Is the Yield Curve and Why Does It Matter?

The yield curve reflects interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds across different time horizons, from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds. It’s one of the most closely watched indicators in finance because it reflects collective expectations about future growth, inflation, and Fed policy. In a healthy economy, the curve slopes upward — investors demand higher yields to lock up money for longer periods. A 10-year bond should pay more than a 2-year bond.

The dreaded inversion: When short-term rates rise above long-term rates, the curve “inverts.” An inverted yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession since 1955, typically 6–24 months before the downturn. The 10Y-2Y spread is the most-watched: when it goes negative, recession warning bells ring. The first chart shows today’s curve shape across all maturities; the second shows the 10Y-2Y spread over time (red = inverted).

The Lifeblood of Financial Markets

Liquidity refers to the amount of money available in the financial system to buy assets, fund loans, and facilitate economic activity. Many analysts argue liquidity conditions are the single most important driver of asset prices — when abundant money seeks returns, it flows into stocks, bonds, real estate, and crypto, pushing prices up. When liquidity drains, prices fall. This explains why markets surged during 2020-2021 when the Fed injected trillions, and struggled in 2022 when that process reversed.

Key metrics: The Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) is ground zero — QE creates reserves, QT drains them. M2 Money Supply is the broadest measure of money (cash, savings, money markets) — it exploded during COVID and has since contracted. Reverse Repo (RRP) is where excess cash parks at the Fed overnight. Treasury General Account (TGA) is the government’s checking account — when Treasury builds it up, it drains market liquidity.

Understanding Style Rotation

“Market regime” refers to the prevailing environment that determines which types of investments outperform. Markets cycle through distinct regimes: risk-on (speculative assets soar), risk-off (flight to safety), growth-led (high P/E tech dominates), and value-led (cheap dividend stocks shine). Understanding the current regime helps position portfolios, and recognizing regime shifts is where the biggest opportunities emerge.

Growth vs Value: Growth stocks (IWF) are high P/E disruptors; Value (IWD) are mature dividend payers. Growth dominated 2010-2021 in the low-rate era; Value surged in 2022 when rates rose. Large vs Small: Large caps (SPY) are stable and global; Small caps (IWM) are volatile and domestic. Small caps outperform coming out of recessions. US vs International: The US dominated 2011-2021 driven by tech. International diversification still matters for different economic cycles.

The Hidden Tax on Your Money

Inflation measures how quickly prices rise across the economy, eroding purchasing power. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation as the “Goldilocks” rate: high enough to encourage spending but low enough for price stability. When inflation exceeds target, the Fed raises rates to cool the economy, hurting stock and bond prices. This is why investors obsess over inflation — it directly drives Fed policy, which drives markets.

CPI is the headline number from surveying ~80,000 items monthly. Core CPI strips out volatile food and energy. PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure — it captures substitution effects (if beef rises, people buy chicken). 10-Year Breakeven is what bond markets expect inflation to average over the next decade.

Reading the Economic Tea Leaves

A recession is a “significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” The NBER is the official arbiter but typically declares recessions months after they begin. This section tracks leading indicators that historically flash warning signs before recessions hit. No single indicator is perfect, but when multiple signals align, the probability rises significantly.

The Sahm Rule transforms unemployment into a real-time signal: when the 3-month average rises 0.5pp above its 12-month low, recession has typically begun. Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) signals accelerating layoffs. Industrial Production declines indicate weakening demand. Housing Starts is forward-looking — builders pull back 6-12 months before broader weakness. Consumer Sentiment captures household confidence about income and employment.

The Bond Market’s Fear Gauge

Credit spreads measure the additional yield corporate bonds pay above risk-free Treasuries. The high yield (junk bond) spread is the gap between what risky companies pay vs the government. Tight spreads (<3%) signal confidence; wide spreads (>5%) signal stress. During the 2008 crisis, HY spreads exceeded 20%.

The investment grade spread tracks higher-quality corporate bonds — it typically moves less but still signals credit stress when widening. The BAA-AAA spread (Moody’s) captures quality differentiation: when it widens, investors are discriminating more aggressively between borrower quality, a classic risk-off signal.

The Dollar’s Global Impact

The U.S. Dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and its strength or weakness ripples through every asset class. A strong dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive, hurts multinational earnings, pressures emerging market debt (denominated in USD), and suppresses commodity prices. A weak dollar does the opposite — it’s generally bullish for commodities, international stocks, and emerging markets.

The Dollar Index (DXY) measures the USD against a basket of 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF) with the Euro having the heaviest weight (~58%). Watch for divergence between DXY and individual pairs — it reveals which currencies are driving dollar moves.

Real-Time Signals from Physical Markets

Commodity prices provide real-time signals about global economic activity, inflation expectations, and supply/demand dynamics. Unlike financial assets, commodities are physical goods consumed in production — when factories run hot, copper demand rises; when economies slow, oil demand falls. This makes commodities leading indicators for economic cycles.

The Copper/Gold ratio is a key risk sentiment indicator: copper is industrial (pro-growth) while gold is defensive (fear hedge). A rising ratio signals economic optimism; a falling ratio signals caution. Natural Gas is driven by weather and power generation. Oil reflects both global demand and OPEC supply decisions.

Beyond U.S. Borders

While U.S. markets have dominated returns over the past decade, global diversification remains important for risk management and capturing opportunities in different economic cycles. Europe, Japan, and emerging markets often move on different timelines driven by local monetary policy, political events, and commodity exposure.

EFA (EAFE) captures developed international markets excluding the US — Europe, Japan, Australia. EEM tracks emerging markets including China, India, Brazil, and Taiwan. China (FXI) has diverged sharply from other markets in recent years due to regulatory crackdowns and property sector stress. Watch for mean reversion opportunities when valuations diverge significantly from historical norms.

Measuring Market Fear and Greed

Sentiment indicators gauge investor psychology and can serve as contrarian signals. When everyone is bullish, there may be no one left to buy. When everyone is bearish, the market may be oversold. The key is identifying extremes — moderate sentiment readings have little predictive power, but extremes often mark turning points.

The VIX (“fear gauge”) measures expected 30-day volatility from S&P 500 options. Below 15 = complacency, 15-20 = normal, 20-30 = elevated anxiety, above 30 = genuine fear. The Chicago Fed NFCI tracks financial conditions: positive values mean tighter conditions (stress); negative means looser (accommodative). Both tend to mean-revert — extreme readings often mark inflection points.

Digital Assets: Bitcoin & Ethereum

Cryptocurrency markets operate 24/7 and are influenced by both macro factors (liquidity, dollar strength, risk appetite) and crypto-native dynamics (halving cycles, ETF flows, regulatory developments, DeFi activity). Bitcoin has increasingly correlated with tech stocks and liquidity conditions, while Ethereum tracks both Bitcoin and smart contract platform adoption.

Bitcoin operates on a 4-year halving cycle that reduces new supply by 50%, historically triggering bull markets 12-18 months post-halving. Ethereum transitioned to proof-of-stake in 2022, making it deflationary when network activity is high (EIP-1559 burn mechanism). Watch the BTC dominance ratio and ETH/BTC pair for rotation signals between the two.

Comprehensive Cross-Asset View

This section provides a broad view across multiple asset classes. The Market Performance YTD chart normalizes all assets to percentage returns from January 1st, allowing direct comparison of stocks, bonds, gold, and crypto on equal footing. Which asset classes are leading? Which are lagging? These relative performance trends often persist for months and can signal regime shifts.